epidemics and illness
A warming planet means the mass-migration of plant and animal species as their endemic ranges change drastically over a short time. We’re already seeing the northward migration of mosquitoes and other tropical insects, as well as tropical plants. [99] [100] The world’s hospitals are not ready for the challenges. [101]
A new fungal disease (Candida auris) that is incredibly hard to eradicate and is resistant to treatment is now spreading worldwide. [102] These fungal infections become more prevalent as the world warms because they gain thermotolerance and can better survive inside the bodies of mammals.
Proposed scheme for the emergence of C. auris. [110]
The WHO put out a report listing diseases that have the potential to spiral out of control into a pandemic, among them Bubonic plague, Ebola, Zika, and Dengue. [101] They mention the potential for an influenza strain to spread rapidly and kill millions, which is what we’re seeing right now with COVID-19.
Lyme disease from ticks, West Nile virus, Malaria, and flesh-eating bacteria and brain-eating amoebas are all expanding their ranges as the world warms.
Upper temperature limits for Ixodes scapularis (tick) establishment in Canada, based on mathematical models. The graph shows the current upper geographic limits and projected limits for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, assuming continuous population growth, regionally oriented economic development and no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Upper and lower model-derived confidence limits are mapped as coloured lines around the black lines. Modified, with permission, from Elsevier (Int J Parasitol 2006;36: 63–70). [103]
Association between precipitation and water-borne disease outbreaks. The graph shows the relation between unusually heavy rainfall and the number of confirmed cases of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli infection that occurred during a massive enteric disease outbreak in Walkerton, Ontario, in May 2000. The incubation period for verotoxigenic E. coli is usually 3–4 days, which is consistent with the lag between extreme precipitation events and surges in the number of cases. [103]
Maps of monthly suitability based on a temperature threshold corresponding to the posterior probability that scaled R0 > 0 is greater or equal to 97.5%, for transmission by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for predicted mean monthly temperatures under current climate and future scenarios for 2050 and 2080: a. RCP 2.6. [99]
Correlation between Salmonella outbreaks and increase in temperature. [104]
The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the lower our collective intelligence as a species. [105] [106] [107] [108] [109]
Modeling the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on cognitive function. Future global outdoor CO2 concentrations (ppm) associated with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (thick lines), equivalent urban outdoor CO2 concentration (thin lines), along with steady‐state indoor CO2 concentrations (dashed lines) assuming reasonable values of generation and ventilation rates (a). Empirical models of normalized cognitive function scores (where normalized refers to the normalization of observations in Allen et al., 2016, such that scores are adjusted to 1.0 at ~500 ppm and bounded [0, 1]) for basic engagement and ability to make decisions in a task (dashed line) and complex strategy (solid line) as a function of indoor CO2 concentration, derived from the Basic Activity Level and Strategy measures in Allen et al. (2016) (b). The dots in panel (b) denote the anchor points extracted from Allen et al. (2016) used for fitting the two models (open for Basic Activity Level and filled for Strategy). Projected normalized cognitive function scores for basic cognitive measure (dashed lines) and complex strategy (solid lines) assuming RCP4.5 (blue lines) and RCP8.5 (red lines) (c). In panel (c), all curves are adjusted to begin at 1.0 in year 2019, thus facilitating a comparison of the changes over time relative to present. [109]